Bobby Green and Grant Dawson fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 229 at UFC Apex. Green enters this fight with a 30-14-1 record and has won 37 percent of his fights by decision. Dawson enters this fight with a 20-1 record and has won 65 percent of his fights by submission.

Bobby Green Betting Preview 

Green has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a July win over Tony Ferguson. Green is averaging 6.14 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Green is averaging 1.21 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Green is coming off a submission win at UFC 291 that earned performance of the night. Green landed 145 total strikes and ate 62 total strikes in the victory. It was the ninth career submission win for King. Green will now fight for the fourth time since last December. Green comes from a wrestling and boxing background, and he has a purple belt in BJJ. He seems more polished as a striker, as he’s heavy-handed, has good ground and pound and closes the distance well. Green also has decent scrambling skills, and 3 of his submission victories have come by guillotine choke. This will be Green’s 13th career fight in Nevada.

Grant Dawson Betting Preview

Dawson has won 10 of his last 11 fights and is coming off a July win over Damir Ismagulov. Dawson is averaging 2.99 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Dawson is averaging 3.70 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Dawson is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 48 where he landed 84 total strikes and produced 3 takedowns. Dawson is 3-0 in career decisions and 9-0-1 under the UFC banner. KGD hasn’t lost a fight since summer of 2016. Dawson is a black belt in BJJ and does his best work on the ground, as he has 13 career submissions and a high takedown success rate in the UFC. Dawson has enough striking to survive on the feet, but almost all of his success has come on the canvas, where he takes control of the back and goes to work. Even most of Dawson’s striking numbers come via ground and pound. This will be Dawson’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

H2H History 

There’s no fight history between these 2 fighters.

Randy’s Free Pick

Dawson should be favored to win this fight obviously, but I’m looking at a drawn out fight and the plus money. Green has seen a ton of decisions over the last 5 years, and he’s not going to find his lost power now that he’s 37 years old. However, Green has a takedown defensive percentage of 74 percent, so he’s not going to be an easy takedown for Dawson. Green has also been submitted just twice in his career. While he may not win this bout, he can do enough to hang around until the final bell. I’ll take a shot with this thing going the distance with the potential nice payout.