Jorge Masvidal vs Gilbert Burns Pick – UFC 287 Predictions & Odds 4/8/23

Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal fight Saturday in UFC 287 at the Kaseya Center. Burns enters this fight with a 21-5 record and has won 43 percent of his fights by submission. Masvidal enters this fight with a 35-16 record and has won 49 percent of his fights by decision.

Burns has won 8 of his last 10 fights and is coming off a January win over Neil Magny. Burns is averaging 3.42 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Burns is averaging 2.03 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Burns is coming off a submission win at UFC 283 where he landed 10 total strikes and produced 1 takedown. It was the ninth career submission victory for Burns. Burns has a decorated grappling background with plenty of experience in wrestling, and he’s a third degree black belt in BJJ. Burns is quick to find a submission hold once he gets the bout to the canvas and few have his grappling credentials, but he’s also decent on his feet with some pop in his hands and a come forward style. Burns doesn’t look as uncomfortable standing up as many guys with his background do, and he has 6 knockouts on his resume. At 36 years old, Burns has really come along these last few years and has improved his resume greatly. This will be Burns’ first career fight in Miami.

Masvidal has split his last 6 fights and is coming off a March (2022) loss to Colby Covington. Masvidal is averaging 4.11 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Masvidal is averaging 1.44 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 59 percent. Masvidal is coming off a decision loss at UFC 272 where he landed 90 total strikes and ate 218 total strikes while getting taken down 6 times. Masvidal has now lost 3 straight fights and looks for his first win since UFC 244. Masvidal has never lost 4 straight fights in his career. Masvidal is a striker at heart with a boxing background, and he fought in backyards of Miami before he turned pro. Masvidal has very good footwork, has become a lot more patient when he attacks and has good variety to his strikes, gaining more creativity with experience. Masvidal is most known for his stand-up, but he’s also had great success with takedowns under the UFC banner and does have a wrestling history as well as submission grappling. Masvidal also has great cardio, but at 38 years old, you can argue time is running out for Gamebred to get these big looks. This will be Masvidal’s second career fight in Miami, his birth city.

Burns should be favored as he’s in better form, he’s the better wrestler and the naturally bigger fighter who can control things in the clinch. However, Masvidal is too scary of a striker to give this sort of plus money to. Also, this is a home fight for Masvidal, who grew up in the streets of Miami fighting with Kimbo Slice. The crowd will heavily be on his side, which never hurts. 

Burns wins on paper, but Masvidal and a potential big payout is where I lean.