Henry Cejudo vs Aljamain Sterling Pick – UFC 288 Predictions & Odds 5/6/23

Aljamain Sterling and Henry Cejudo fight Saturday in UFC 288 at the Prudential Center. Sterling enters this fight with a 22-3 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by decision. Cejudo enters this fight with a 16-2 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision.

Sterling has won each of his last 8 fights and is coming off an October win over T.J. Dillashaw. Sterling is averaging 4.70 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Sterling is averaging 1.98 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 24 percent. Sterling is coming off a knockout win at UFC 280 where he landed 148 total strikes and produced 5 takedowns. The victory put to rest some of the doubts after a DQ win over Yan back in UFC 259. Sterling still hasn’t lost a bout since UFC Fight Night 123. Sterling is an accurate striker with an impressive work rate, and he’s a black belt in BJJ. Sterling has a background in Division III wrestling, and he’s never been submitted, while he has 8 career submissions of his own. Sterling has become a really balanced fighter, and he’s experiencing his best results at nearly 34 years old. This will be Sterling’s 10th career fight in New Jersey.

Cejudo has won each of his last 6 fights and is coming off a May (2020) win over Dominick Cruz. Cejudo is averaging 3.92 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Cejudo is averaging 2.12 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Cejudo is coming off a knockout win at UFC 249 for the UFC Bantamweight Championship, where he retired a couple of weeks later. It’s going to be interesting to see what Cejudo looks like, as he hasn’t fought in 3 years and is no longer a spring chicken at 36 years old. Cejudo is one of the most decorated wrestlers in the sport, which includes a gold medal in Beijing and other gold medals in various other competitions. Cejudo is a yellow belt in Shotokan. While Cejudo is known for his ground game, he can hold his own on the feet and has some pop in his hands as well. Cejudo has 8 career knockouts, and his last 3 bouts have ended in the stoppage. This will be Cejudo’s first career fight in New Jersey.

Cejudo is obviously capable of winning this fight, but I’m not sure how anybody can back him with confidence given the 3-year hiatus. I don’t like backing fighters who have been out of the sport for an extended period of time, and it’s pretty steep with Cejudo. Sterling is fighting his best of his career, and getting the slightly cheaper price is hard to ignore. This line is actually kind of disrespectful to Sterling, as I’d assume Cejudo would be -150 or higher if it weren’t for the layoff. I’m not buying it.

Give me Sterling.