Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek Prediction – WTA Finals Picks 11-04-2023

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will face World No. 2 Iga Swiatek in a decisive semifinal match at the 2023 WTA Finals that will likely determine the year-end No. 1 ranking. The clash will take place on Saturday, November 4, 2023.

Sabalenka vs Swiatek Preview

What a match we have on our hands. The de facto final if you want to call it. Aryna Sabalenka will retain the No. 1 spot if she defeats Iga Swiatek and reaches the final. The math is not so complicated for her. She’s had to do it the hard way to reach this stage. After her first group-stage match in which she totally obliterated Maria Sakkari, the Belarusian was overpowered (yes, overpowered for once!) by Jessica Pegula and was in danger of early elimination. But she won the winner-take-all final round-robin match against her good friend Elena Rybakina in a match that took a couple of days to complete due to persistent rain.

Iga Swiatek, meanwhile, completed an unblemished record in the group stage, winning all three matches and comfortably topping the group. Much has been said about the state of the courts and playing conditions in Cancun, including Swiatek’s spokesperson, but the Pole has not shown any weaknesses in her game nor struggled with bad bounces so far, having coasted through without the loss of a set. Swiatek also served a couple of 6-0 sets, and laid waste on Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur on Friday night, winning 6-1, 6-2.

Sabalenka vs Swiatek Prediction

Iga Swiatek leads the head-to-head 5-3, but three of those wins have been on her beloved clay. That is not to say the 22-year-old struggles to play her best tennis on hard courts. In fact, it’s the complete opposite. She’s been one the most dominant players on the surface this season winning three titles (Doha, Warsaw, and Beijing). Swiatek can win the battle, but she’ll need to win the war to emerge with the No. 1 ranking. She needs to win the title to usurp Aryna Sabalenka from top spot. But going by the quality of tennis on display this week, it is hard to look past the four-time Grand Slam champion to win this match and book a spot in Sunday’s final. It’s been Sabalenka’s year for most of it, but Swiatek will gatecrash the party. Swiatek gets our vote here.