Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins prediction 1-13-24 Picks

The Miami Dolphins have lost their last 2 games and look for their first playoff win since the 2000 season. The Kansas City Chiefs won 3 of their last 4 games and they haven’t lost in the wild card round since the 2017 season. Let’s preview the AFC Wild Card and give out a Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins blew the AFC East with losses to the Ravens and Bills. Tua Tagovailoa is completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 1,813 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns, while Durham Smythe has 35 receptions. The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 135.8 yards per contest, and Raheem Mostert leads the way with 1,012 yards and 18 touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 23 points and 318.3 yards per game. David Long Jr. leads the Miami Dolphins with 113 tackles, Bradley Chubb has 11 sacks and Jalen Ramsey has 3 interceptions.

Miami Dolphins Team Facts

• The Dolphins have won three of their last four games as road underdogs following a Division loss.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last four road games following a Division loss.
• The Dolphins have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as underdogs against reigning Super Bowl champions.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last six games following a loss.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off wins over the Bengals and Chargers. Patrick Mahomes is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 4,183 yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice have combined for 1,922 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, while Justin Watson has 27 receptions. The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 104.9 yards per contest, and Isiah Pacheco leads the way with 935 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 17.3 points and 289.8 yards per game. Justin Reid leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 95 tackles, George Karlaftis has 10.5 sacks and L’Jarius Sneed has 2 interceptions.

Kansas City Chiefs Team Facts

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 16 games as home favorites following a Division game.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites following a win.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games as favorites following a win.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last six January games against AFC opponents.

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction

It’s hard to back the Dolphins with a lot of confidence given their injury situation, as their entire defense is banged up and Waddle and Mostert remain questionable at the time of this writing. The weather is also going to be single digits, so a team adjusted to South Florida weather is going to be hating life. With all that said, these Kansas City Chiefs aren’t the same team from years ago. Mahomes doesn’t have a receiver he trusts, the running game is hit or miss and the defense can be spotty as well, especially against the run. Also, let’s not forget the Dolphins and Chiefs went toe to toe in Germany a couple of months ago and the difference was a Tyreek Hill fumble that was returned for a score. The Chiefs should be favored at home, but this line, especially with the Dolphins injuries, tells you something. On paper, this line should be more than what it is. This should be a close game. Give me the road dog.