Toledo vs Valparaiso 11/7/22 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Valparaiso Beacons and the Toledo Rockets meet in college basketball action from the Savage Arena on Monday night.

The Valparaiso Beacons will be hoping to bounce back from a frustrating 2021-22 season, finishing the year at 14-18 overall including 6-12 in Missouri Valley Conference play. The Beacons took out Evansville in the opening round before falling to Missouri State in the quarterfinals. Valpo does lose three double-digit scorers from last year’s team, but also does bring some talent back from last year’s squad, including a pair of double-digit scorers in Ben Krikke (14.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Kobe King (14 PPG, 4.7 RPG. Valparaiso’s also bringing in a pair of D-II transfers in Nick Edwards who led D-II with 7.9 APG while also registering 17.1 PPG and 6.1 RPG and Quinton Green also comes in from Cedarville after logging 12.7 PPG and 4.1 RPG last season.

The Toledo Rockets will try to take a step forward in 2022-23 after going 26-8 in the 2021-22 season, including a 17-3 mark in MAC conference play to finish atop the MAC as the regular season champions. The Rockets took out Central Michigan in the quarterfinals before being upended by Kent State in the semifinals. But because Toledo were a regular season champion that didn’t win their conference tournament, the Rockets were given an automatic bid to the NIT, but that stay was short-lived as the Rockets lost in the first round to Dayton. The Rockets will be out to replace leading scorer Ryan Rollins, who takes away 18.9 PPG and 6 RPG from last year’s team, but three double-digit scorers are back for the Rockets, with Setric Millner Jr. and JT Shumate each logging 15 PPG last season with Shumate logging 6.1 RPG to lead the Rockets while Millner Jr. had 5.8 RPG. RayJ Dennis also returns after putting up 12.7 PPG with a team-high 4 APG last year and the Rockets pryed Tyler Cochran from within the MAC, poaching him from NIU and giving the Rockets another double-digit scoring threat that shot 37.1% from three last season. This Rockets team has the potential to be the best in a long time, it’s just about executing and finishing the job this time around.

Valparaiso is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall while the over is 7-2 in their last 9 road games. Toledo is 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games overall and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games whilet he under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall.

I get the case to be made for Valparaiso here, but the issue I have is that the Beacons lost a fair bit of talent and while they did reload in the offseason, the reality is that it’s still going to take time for those guys to mesh together and get comfortable. Toledo brings back a ton of talent from a really good team last year and I think they get in and get out with a win and cover in this one.